In financial system. Had Iran violated any

In July 2015, Iran entered into a landmark nuclear agreement”Parameters for a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)” with six worldpowers (P5+1) the US, UK, Russia, France, China, and Germany to limit itssensitive nuclear activities for more than a decade in return for the liftingof crippling sanctions. This agreement has been a landmark foreign policyachievement of Obama’s presidency.

Now in Presidency, Donald Trump finds thedeal lenient and is unwilling to recertify it. This deal resulted a globalimpact creating opportunities for countries and re-establishing frozenrelationships. If such strategic important internationaldeals had to be signed and rescinded on the whims and perceptions of individualleaders of the leading nation and their electorates, the entire system wouldcollapse; and collapsing it is, with North Korea under no one’s control andmeasures underway to ensure that Iran too would head the same way.The deal involved limitedinstallations to 5060 Centrifuges involving Uranium enrichment, restrictions onNuclear research & development, barred to operate and build heavy watercontaining Plutonium suitable for nuclear bomb, extraordinary and robustmonitoring, verification and inspection from global nuclear watchdog IAEA,increase in ‘Break out Time’ from 3 months to one year and most importantlylifting sanctions on selling oil in international markets and using Global financialsystem. Had Iran violated any aspect of the deal, the UN sanctions wouldautomatically ‘snap back’ into place for 10 years and extensions. However, thesenior official electorates and the leaders of allied governments have influenced rump to withdraw from the deal this April 2018 as the costsof blowing up the deal outweigh the benefits. The major impact of the broken deal will be on Iran,the second largest economy in the Middle East and North Africa region afterSaudi Arabia.

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The Iranian economy strongly recovered in 2016, on shoulder of significantrise in oil production and exports. In 2016, the economy registered astrong oil-based come back, with an annual growth rate of 13.4 percent,compared to a shrinkage of 1.

3 percent in 2015. The country resumed selling oilon international markets with $48 Bn in 2017 and using the global financialsystem for trade. Iran is accessing more than $100bn in assets frozen overseas,mainly United States.

The sanctions have cost Iran more than more than $160bn(£102bn) in oil revenue since 2012 alone. Re implementation of sanctions willhave a boomerang effect on the economy re building back itself to 2015 as aslow economy.United States have overestimated their efforts ofmanaging the economy on their own.

Stepping back the economy out of the dealwould not only erode the integrity of the U.S, it would also effect theinternational nuclear non-proliferation drive, and set a poor precedent thatwould surely put strain on the ongoing multinational efforts at finding apeaceful solution to the Korean nuclear deadlock through negotiations. Worse,the move could remove the systems in place that monitor Iran’s nuclearactivity, and would certainly make proliferation more likely and burn all conceivableoptions short of war with Iran and Korea. A well founded and solidity Iran isin the national interest of India.

With oil price splurging highs with 99.4% fromtheir 2016 low, imposing sanctions on Iran would affect the oil prices andtrade relations with major countries. India has been one of the few countriesdoing billions of dollars of trade with Iran, despite the sanctions having beenbefore. Current bilateral trade between India and Iran is about $14bn with thebalance of trade heavily. Indian exports to Iran were around $4.

2bn lastyear. Implementing sanctions will fuel in the current rising prices highand as India spends nearly $1 billion in import costs for every dollar increasein global crude prices which will lead to negative balance of trade. Resumingrestrictions on selling of oil in international market will cut back productionof oil leading to inflation turmoil in India. Secondly, the realm of Indianbusinessmen that Iran is difficult to capture, or even turning to morecompetitive international players due to opening up of the economy can rest forsome while as the negotiation power has been dragged down via restrictions.Thirdly, development of Iran’s Chabahar port, which is strategicallysignificant as an entre-pot being the gateway to Central Asia in providingaccess to Afghanistan shall ignite for early development. As Israel and severalWest Asian states are at loggerheads with Iran, India must tactfully use itsdiplomacy to balance its equations. The deal has multi-sectoral implicationsfor India from economic to geographic and so it must capitalise on theopportunities from the changing fiscal policies.

 So it is this unpredictabilitywhich will rear its ugly head, which is never good for any internationalbusiness and trade; the last thing India needs at a time when its economy is inre-stabilisation mode is an increase in its oil bill. Stringent sanctions reimplementationde-stabilise the economic and security situation in Iran, which has close linkswith China. The two countries have economic, business and energy treaties, withChina depending on petroleum imports from Iran while latter looks to China forinvestment, particularly road trade and infrastructure plan.  The Iran nuclear deal has thepotential to affect the UAE economy as UAE has economic ties with Iran and theGCC’s ( Gulf Cooperation Council) geopolitical rivalry with their neighbouringcountries. Firstly, expatriates from Dubai have made huge profits as thecommercial centre for new business ventures in Iran, adding to its role as thecentre of Middle Eastern commerce and host of scores of company headquarters.

Secondly, UAE has stood strongly with oil producing countries for aggressivelyhigh rate and due to nuclear deal had put stress on UAE and budget deficits ofthe nation. Implementation of sanctions would relief UAE’s rising pressure ontheir price control through cartel. The nuclear deal had played a vitalrole in ensuring nuclear non-propagation and harmonizing peace and stability inthe Middle East for the world. PresidentTrump’s obsession with isolating Iran could witness the return of a far morerobust mechanism of monitoring and preventing breaches through alternativesignored by previous administrations.


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